By Leopold Munhende
A LEADING grain analysis organisation, Commodity Insight Africa (CIA), has predicted grain shortages for Zimbabwe within “the next few weeks” if government does not reopen borders to allow imports.
Government, late last month, introduced a ban on maize imports by millers citing a bumper harvest, which CIA believes could have been inflated.
The ban made through Statutory Instrument (SI) 87 of 2025, and announced by Agriculture Minister Anxious Masuka, declared that contractors would be expected to procure at least 40% of their annual raw materials locally by April next year and 100% of the materials by 2028.
The SI also gives contractors the sole mandate to import, an issue that might not just put them on a collision course with millers but further worsen supply.
“The agriculture ministry has advised the president to open the borders for maize imports,” said Jacques Pienaar of CIA.
“They were closed on June 1 based on their grain estimates.”
Speaking on Agriculture Intelligence Africa (AIA), a popular channel tracing trends in the grain market, Pienaar said the shortage would have been artificially created as government was being political about the decision.
He added: “It is a bit embarrassing to open the borders three months after closing them. It is politics delaying the opening of these borders, which in our opinion is inevitable.
“Government has the tendency to inflate growth estimates and the market warned several months ago that they were significantly overestimating the maize crop.
“Current supply is extremely tight and millers are already dipping into reserves. If borders are not opened within the next few weeks, millers could struggle to meet consumer maize meal demand.”
Whereas Pienaar estimates Zimbabwe needs an extra 1.1 million tonnes, the US Foreign Agricultural Services believes current supply will fall short by around 700,000 tonnes despite a notable increase in production.
The 2024/25 season produced an estimated 1.3 million tonnes against a national demand of two million tonnes. Government maintains that farmers produced 2.3 million tonnes and ensured Zimbabwe will be food secure.
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